Friday, April 30, 2010

MADRID 2010 FINALS: The Fink Tank Index previews an exciting world of football prediction

A distinctive aspect of Nature’s design is the penchant for precise proportions. As such mathematical trends are never far away from our considerations. In Football, the Castriol Index which rates the performance of individual football players maybe more popular, but the Fink Tank is not far behind. Developed by the Warwick University as the Decision Technology (Dectech) Predictor, it is now simply referred to as the Fink Tank Index.

Using complex statistics, they look back at two years of goals scored by respective teams as well as their shots on goal, then weight them in such a way that the more recent results count more heavily. Football teams are then ranked according to their performance and can be compared against each other. In the ranking for the Champions league final on May 22nd, Inter Milan is rated ahead of Bayern Munich with a 39.6% chance of winning compared to Bayern’s 34%. Significantly, there is a sizable 26.4% chance for a stalemate. Drama is in the air!

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